It’s time for college football, and it’s time to bet on it! And figure out what the hell is going one with these teams. Player transfers, players that left, players returning, new coaches, etc. Fun, fun, fun! No, seriously, I fucking love it!
I’m not doing a top 25, but I am going to review a shit ton of teams. As many as I can before the start of the season, and ranking them as I go. I will also give you a list of teams to fade early and to bet on (play on) early. These fades and bet-on teams will only last a couple weeks, so check back in around week 3 and I’ll have new teams to fade and to bet on.
My first rule of betting college football is to bet on games/teams from mainly the power 5 conferences. Sometimes I’ll dabble in AAC and Mountain West Conference, especially later in the year but that’s about it. A lot of quote-un-quote “sharps”, would advise only betting on the smaller conferences, MAC, Sun-Belt etc. However, I disagree, I think it’s easier to bet on the power 5 conferences because the information on injuries is more readily available as these teams/conference have more people covering them. In order to get favorable information on the smaller conference, you really have to have sources, while with the larger conferences, Google, is as good of a source as any. I have a few randoms teams I previewed below, but in my next post(s), I’ll focus solely on reviewing teams in power 5 vs power 5 matchups the first couple weeks of the season. Games like, Georgia vs Oregon, West Virginia vs Pittsburgh, and others over the next couple of weeks.
All right, so here are the team previews below. Some are more in-depth than others, and others are pretty damn shallow, meaning I don’t say much, but still have an opinion on the team.
Boston College – BET ON
I like them. With Phil Jurkovec back and healthy, I think this is a team to play-on early. Last year, they were 4-2 with him as the starter and 2-4 without him. He had 149.9 QB Rating, which is just below my sweet spot of 150 for a college QB, and a QBR of 84.3. Need I say more?
A Review of My Previews So Far (after only one review)
I know these previews are short, but that’s the point. Short and sweet. Handicapping college football early on is KISS (Keep-It-Simple-Stupid). Research the Coach, QB, returning player, notable transfers and review how the team did last year. That’s it, based on those variables, you can make a pretty good assumption of how teams will perform the first few weeks.
Nebraska – FLAT
Okay, so I’m not going to have a clear, play-on/bet-on or fade with every team. And with that said, FLAT, means I just haven’t developed a strong opinion about the team yet. In Nebraska’s case, I think it’s a hefty blow to endure the loss of Adrian Martinez to Kansas State, who was their starting quarterback for the last four seasons. But, they replaced him with Casey Thompson, from the University of Texas, who has comparable statistics and experience. So, FLAT, is the outlook on this year’s Nebraska squad.
Iowa State – FADE
The Iowa State Cyclones underachieved last year and now lose two offensive standouts in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall. In addition to this loss, they are only returning 3 starters on defense. I think it’s time for Matt Campbell to have a losing season in Ames, which will be the first losing season since his first season. I don’t believe they’ll reload as fast the as the blue blood programs do when they lose this type of quality personnel.
Florida State – BET ON
This is Mike Norvell’s third season as head coach and with Jordan Travis returning at QB, along with almost the entire defensive unit, I expect this to be a breakthrough year for the Seminoles!
Minnesota Golden Gophers – BET ON
Not a lot of deep coverage on this team from the Midwest, but with a bevy of returning starters on offense and defense (9 players on offense and 10 players on defense), including veteran QB Tanner Morgan, they should at least compete for a division title. JP Fleck has done a marvelous job turning this program around and entering his sixth season as head coach, this year should be no different. I would not be surprised if their season culminated with an appearance in the Big Ten title game, and then seeing Fleck make an exit next year for a bigger program.
UCF Golden Knights – BET ON
How good this UCF team can be will rely on the play at the quarterback position. They have the transfer from Auburn, John Rhys Plumlee, and Mickey Keene, who started in place of the often injured Dillon Gabriel. I’ll reiterate, the play of the starting quarterback will determine the ceiling for this team, as they have enough returning players for a solid foundation.
Next Time
Okay, so I’m done writing for today. But next time I’ll focus more on the teams playing head-to-head on September 1st and 3rd (Florida, Utah, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and a few others). I might even give you my first official play of the college football season.
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